Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/8/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (GAEL) 2.A POSITION 2009/02/03 AT 1200 UTC : 17.6S / 63.3E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 50 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 200 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 850 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/04 00 UTC: 18.2S/61.5E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/02/04 12 UTC: 18.6S/59.5E, MAX WIND=050KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/02/05 00 UTC: 18.7S/57.2E, MAX WIND=055KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/02/05 12 UTC: 18.8S/55.4E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/02/06 00 UTC: 19.2S/53.3E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/02/06 12 UTC: 19.9S/51.7E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5 AND CI=2.5+ SYSTEM SHOWS A BROAD VORTEX, TOTALLY EXPOSED EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BUT LAST METEOSAT7 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NEW CLUSTERS CLOSER TO THE CENTER. SYSTEM STILL UNDERGOES AN EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR BUT IS NOW CLOSER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS (CF CIRRUS EASTWARDS OUTFLOW IN THE PERIPHERAL BAND SOUTH OF 19S) , WINDSHEAR IS IN CONSEQUENCE EXPECTED WEAKENING AS FORECASTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24H UNDER THIS RIDGE. MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION ISLANDS ARE NOT FORECASTED TO BE CONCERN BY A STRONG INTENSITY SYSTEM DUE TO ITS FAST MOTION AND ACTUAL WEAK INTENSITY. THIS ISLAND SHOULD HOWEVER CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODEL AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT SOME OF THEM HOWEVER FORECAST CLOSER TRACKS.