Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/8/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (GAEL) 2.A POSITION 2009/02/03 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7S / 62.6E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 50 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 350 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 850 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/04 06 UTC: 18.0S/60.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/02/04 18 UTC: 18.3S/58.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/02/05 06 UTC: 18.4S/56.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/02/05 18 UTC: 18.5S/54.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/02/06 06 UTC: 18.9S/52.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/02/06 18 UTC: 19.8S/51.1E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5 AND CI=2.5+ SINCE 15Z, DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS STARTED NEAR THE CENTER AND OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI CIRCLE. CENTER BECOMES DIFFICULT TO LOCALIZE ON IR IMAGERY AND CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF 14:10Z FIX ON SSMI F15 (FIX NEAR 17.6S/63.2E). UNCERTAINTY IS CONSEQUENTLY STRONGER THAN USUAL. SYSTEM IS NOW CLOSER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS (CF CIRRUS EASTWARDS OUTFLOW IN THE PERIPHERAL BAND SOUTH OF 19S) , WINDSHEAR IS IN CONSEQUENCE EXPECTED WEAKENING AS FORECASTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24H UNDER THIS RIDGE. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY TURN THE TRACK ON A MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT. CURRENT FORCAST TRACK, BASED ON 00Z AND SOME EARLIER 12Z NWP MODELS IS A LITTLE BIT MORE TO THE NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS MADE WITH ECMWF, UKMO, ARP AND CONW. MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION ISLANDS ARE NOT FORECASTED TO BE CONCERN BY A STRONG INTENSITY SYSTEM DUE TO ITS FAST MOTION AND ACTUAL WEAK INTENSITY. THIS ISLAND SHOULD HOWEVER CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE COULD ALLOW A MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK.