Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/8/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (GAEL) 2.A POSITION 2009/02/04 AT 0600 UTC : 17.8S / 60.6E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST 10 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 50 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 200 SO: 150 NO: 200 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/04 18 UTC: 17.9S/58.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/02/05 06 UTC: 18.0S/56.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/02/05 18 UTC: 18.2S/54.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/02/06 06 UTC: 18.5S/53.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/02/06 18 UTC: 19.3S/51.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/02/07 06 UTC: 20.4S/50.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5+ AND CI=2.5+ DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BUILT NEAR THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS IMPROVED JUDGED BY THE CIRRUS EXPANSION EVEN IF A SLIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR REMAINS (LIGHT ARC OF CIRRUS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT, AND LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED IN THE SOUTHEAST). A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY TURN THE TRACK ON A MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT. CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL CONSENSUS. IT IS MORE THAN LIKELY THAT MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION ISLANDS SHOULD NOT BE CONCERNED BY THE ACTIVE PART OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE MASCARENES. THESE ISLANDS SHOULD HOWEVER CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE COULD ALLOW A MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK. BY THIS TIME, SYSTEM SHOULD BE ON A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW, HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A WEAK WINDSHEAR. FOR SATURDAY, SOME NWP MODELS (ECMWF, ALADIN FRENCH MODEL) DEEP SIGNIFICATIVELY THE SYSTEM AND IT IS LIKELY THAT GAEL COULD BECOME A DANGEROUS HURRICANE BY THIS TIME. CONSEQUENTLY, INTEREST ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM TOO.