Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/8/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (GAEL) 2.A POSITION 2009/02/04 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9S / 59.8E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST 8 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 992 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 50 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 200 SO: 150 NO: 200 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/05 00 UTC: 18.0S/57.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/02/05 12 UTC: 18.3S/55.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/02/06 00 UTC: 18.6S/53.2E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2009/02/06 12 UTC: 19.1S/51.6E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2009/02/07 00 UTC: 19.8S/50.3E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/02/07 12 UTC: 20.3S/49.8E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.0 THE SYSTEM STILL UNDERGOES A SOUTHERLY CONSTRAINT (LIGHT ARC OF CIRRUS, AND LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED IN THE SOUTH ACCORDING THE TRMM DATA AT 0945Z). GAEL IS TRACKING ALONG THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE PRESENT IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD THEREFORE KEEP ON TRACKING WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BEYOND, A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD CURVE THE TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS. CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL CONSENSUS. WINDSHEAR SHOULD DECREASE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME EXCELLENT BEYOND 36 HOURS (GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW, HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A WEAK WINDSHEAR. MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION ISLANDS LIKELY SHOULD NOT BE CONCERNED BY THE ACTIVE PART OF THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS IN THE NORTH OF THE MASCARENES ISLANDS. THESE ISLANDS SHOULD HOWEVER CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM. RELATED TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM, INTEREST ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM TOO.