Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/8/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (GAEL) 2.A POSITION 2009/02/04 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9S / 59.0E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 988 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 44 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 50 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 240 SE: 300 SO: 200 NO: 300 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/05 06 UTC: 18.2S/57.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/02/05 18 UTC: 18.4S/54.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2009/02/06 06 UTC: 18.7S/52.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2009/02/06 18 UTC: 19.4S/50.9E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2009/02/07 06 UTC: 20.0S/50.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2009/02/07 18 UTC: 20.5S/49.8E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.0+ LAST METEOSAT7 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE CLEARLY IMPROVING. MICROWAVE SSMIS F16 AT 1600Z REVEALS A CURVED BAND PATTERN, WINDSHEAR HAS CLEARLY WEAKENED. WINDS EXTENSION HAS BEEN RECALIBRATED THANKS TO 1414Z QUIKSCAT SWATH. GAEL IS TRACKING ALONG THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE PRESENT IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD THEREFORE KEEP ON TRACKING WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BEYOND, A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD CURVE THE TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS. CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL CONSENSUS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME EXCELLENT BEYOND 36 HOURS (GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW, HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A WEAK WINDSHEAR) MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION ISLANDS LIKELY SHOULD NOT BE CONCERNED BY THE ACTIVE PART OF THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS IN THE NORTH OF THE MASCARENES ISLANDS. THESE ISLANDS SHOULD HOWEVER CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM. RELATED TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM, INTEREST ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM TOO.