Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/8/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (GAEL) 2.A POSITION 2009/02/05 AT 0600 UTC : 18.2S / 57.4E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 50 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 260 SE: 530 SO: 190 NO: 300 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/05 18 UTC: 18.8S/55.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/02/06 06 UTC: 18.9S/54.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/02/06 18 UTC: 19.4S/52.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2009/02/07 06 UTC: 20.0S/51.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2009/02/07 18 UTC: 20.9S/51.6E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2009/02/08 06 UTC: 22.1S/51.7E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5- THE CENTER WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS LLCC IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WITHIN LA REUNION DOPPLER RADAR'S RANGE ALLOWING MORE PRECISE MONITORED LOCATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS BUILDING EQUATORWARD AS SHOWED BY NORTHWARDS AND NORTHEASTWARDS CIRRUS OUTFLOW REVEALING AN IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. 05/0240Z QUIKSCAT SWATH SHOWED A IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. GAEL IS STILL TRACKING ALONG THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE PRESENT IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD THEREFORE KEEP ON TRACKING WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND, A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD CURVE THE TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS. CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL CONSENSUS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME EXCELLENT BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS (GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW, HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A WEAK WINDSHEAR).