Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/8/20082009 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (GAEL) 2.A POSITION 2009/02/05 AT 1200 UTC : 18.3S / 56.0E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 50 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 320 SO: 200 NO: 350 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/06 00 UTC: 18.7S/54.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/02/06 12 UTC: 19.1S/52.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2009/02/07 00 UTC: 19.7S/51.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2009/02/07 12 UTC: 20.8S/50.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2009/02/08 00 UTC: 21.9S/50.9E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2009/02/08 12 UTC: 23.0S/51.2E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.0- THE SYSTEM IS CHANGING FROM A CURVED BAND PATTERN INTO A BANDED EYE PATTERN. ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVOURABLE, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS WEAKENED AND AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS BUILT. GAEL IS STILL TRACKING ALONG THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE PRESENT IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD THEREFORE KEEP ON TRACKING WESTSOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND, A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD CURVE THE TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS. CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL CONSENSUS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL IMPROVE BEYOND 24 HOURS (IMPROVING TRADES INFLOW, HIGH SST, SECOND OUTFLOW POLARWARD).