Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/8/20082009 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (GAEL) 2.A POSITION 2009/02/05 AT 1800 UTC : 18.3S / 55.1E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST 8 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 970 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SO: 230 NO: 230 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 070 SO: 070 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/06 06 UTC: 18.6S/53.3E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2009/02/06 18 UTC: 19.3S/52.2E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2009/02/07 06 UTC: 20.5S/51.1E, MAX WIND=095KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2009/02/07 18 UTC: 21.4S/51.0E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2009/02/08 06 UTC: 22.4S/51.3E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2009/02/08 18 UTC: 24.1S/51.9E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.5- GAEL HAS INTENSIFIED AND SHOWS AN EYE PATTERN ON THE LAST IMAGES. ENVIRONMENTS HAS BECOME FAVOURABLE AS THE WINDSHEAR HAS DECREASED AND THE PRESENCE OF AN OUTFLOW EQUATORWARD. GAEL TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRESENT IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD THEREFORE KEEP ON TRACKING WESTSOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BEYOND, A WEAKNESS IN THE MID TO HIGH LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD CURVE THE TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS, AND THEN SOUTHWARDS. CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL CONSENSUS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP ON IMPROVING (IMPROVING TRADES INFLOW, HIGH SST, SECOND OUTFLOW POLEWARD).