Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/8/20082009 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (GAEL) 2.A POSITION 2009/02/06 AT 0000 UTC : 18.5S / 54.3E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST 8 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 300 SO: 250 NO: 250 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 070 SO: 070 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/06 12 UTC: 19.0S/52.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2009/02/07 00 UTC: 20.2S/51.4E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2009/02/07 12 UTC: 21.0S/51.1E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2009/02/08 00 UTC: 22.1S/51.3E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2009/02/08 12 UTC: 23.9S/52.0E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2009/02/09 00 UTC: 25.8S/53.1E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.5+ GAEL SHOWS AN EYE PATTERN. THE EYE IS BETTER DEFINED ON THE LAST IMAGERY (SINCE 23100Z), COMPARED TO BEFORE WHEN THE SYSTEM SHOWED A RAGGED EYE. ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME FAVOURABLE AS THE WINDSHEAR HAS DECREASED AND DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS LIMITED. GAEL TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRESENT IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD THEREFORE KEEP ON TRACKING WESTSOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BEYOND, A WEAKNESS IN THE MID TO HIGH LEVEL RIDGE (DUE TO A MID LAT TROUGH) SHOULD RECURVE THE TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS, AND THEN SOUTHWARDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP ON IMPROVING: BETTER TRADES INFLOW, HIGH SST, PRESENCE OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO THE TROUGH. CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS.