Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/8/20082009 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (GAEL) 2.A POSITION 2009/02/06 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6S / 52.5E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 280 50 KT NE: 070 SE: 070 SO: 090 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/07 00 UTC: 19.5S/51.4E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2009/02/07 12 UTC: 20.4S/51.1E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2009/02/08 00 UTC: 21.5S/51.3E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2009/02/08 12 UTC: 23.3S/51.9E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2009/02/09 00 UTC: 25.4S/52.7E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/02/09 12 UTC: 27.2S/53.6E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.5- GAEL KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING. DVORAK ANALYSIS IN EIR GIVE AN AVERAGE T-NUMBER OF 5.5- OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS MOTION AND SPEED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS IS ESTIMATED AT : 250/6KT ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY BECOMING VERY FAVOURABLE WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND PARTICULARLY WITH A VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AN INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. MAXIMAL INTENSITY SHOULD BE REACH WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE COOLER SST AND A STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. GAEL TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRESENT IN THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE THE TRACK SHOULD RECURVE PROGRESSIVELY TOWARDS THE SOUTH TOMORROW, THEN SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARDS SUNDAY. CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS EXCEPT NOGAPS AND GFDN THAT APPEAR TOO MUCH EASTWARDS SINCE A LONG TIME.