Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/8/20082009 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (GAEL) 2.A POSITION 2009/02/06 AT 1800 UTC : 19.2S / 52.3E (NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 941 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SO: 350 NO: 280 50 KT NE: 070 SE: 070 SO: 090 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/07 06 UTC: 19.4S/52.1E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2009/02/07 18 UTC: 21.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2009/02/08 06 UTC: 22.7S/52.5E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2009/02/08 18 UTC: 24.7S/53.5E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2009/02/09 06 UTC: 27.1S/54.7E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/02/09 18 UTC: 29.0S/56.2E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.5 ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING VERY FAVOURABLE WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND PARTICULARLY WITH A VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH AN INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. MAXIMAL INTENSITY SHOULD BE REACH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE COOLER SST AND A STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. GAEL TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRESENT IN THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TRACKING SOUTHWARDS DURING FEW HOURS, THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO TRACK NOW SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS. IT IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE ONCE MORE PROGRESSIVELY TOWARDS THE SOUTH TOMORROW, THEN SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARDS SUNDAY.