Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 21/8/20082009 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (GAEL) 2.A POSITION 2009/02/07 AT 0000 UTC : 19.5S / 51.8E (NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 3 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 941 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 350 SO: 400 NO: 350 50 KT NE: 070 SE: 070 SO: 090 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/07 12 UTC: 21.0S/51.6E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2009/02/08 00 UTC: 22.2S/51.9E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2009/02/08 12 UTC: 23.9S/52.6E, MAX WIND=090KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2009/02/09 00 UTC: 26.1S/53.5E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2009/02/09 12 UTC: 28.6S/55.3E, MAX WIND=070KT , BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/02/10 00 UTC: 30.5S/57.1E, MAX WIND=060KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.5 GAEL BENEFIT FROM A GOOD TRADE INFLOW THANKS TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS SOUTH-WEST. BUT THE MONSOON FLOW WAS CLEARELY CUT DURING THE LAST HOURS : EROSION OF THE CDO IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT (CF. TRMM AT 17.41UTC AND AQUA AT 21.41UTC). HOWEVER UPPER ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING VERY FAVOURABLE WITH A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH AN INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. MAXIMAL INTENSITY SHOULD BE REACH WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS BEFORE COOLER SST AND A STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. GAEL TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRESENT IN THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. IT IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE ONCE MORE PROGRESSIVELY TOWARDS THE SOUTH, THEN SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARDS SUNDAY.