Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 22/8/20082009 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (GAEL) 2.A POSITION 2009/02/07 AT 0600 UTC : 20.0S / 51.7E (TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 934 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 95 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 350 SO: 400 NO: 350 50 KT NE: 070 SE: 070 SO: 090 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/07 18 UTC: 21.2S/52.1E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2009/02/08 06 UTC: 22.5S/52.5E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2009/02/08 18 UTC: 24.4S/53.3E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2009/02/09 06 UTC: 26.8S/54.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2009/02/09 18 UTC: 28.8S/56.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/02/10 06 UTC: 30.5S/57.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.5+ GAEL TAKES BENEFIT OF A GOOD TRADE LOW LEVEL INFLOW THANKS TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES IN ITS SOUTH-WEST. EQUATORWARD MONSOON FLOW IS LIMITED WESTWARD CUTTED BY MALAGASY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY (AMSU 0044Z AND 0135Z, SSMIS 0157Z) REVEALS A ERODED EYEWALL IN THE WESTERN PART. HOWEVER UPPER ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING VERY FAVOURABLE WITH A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH AN INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. PEAK OF INTENSITY SHOULD BE REACH WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS BEFORE COOLER SST AND A STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDS STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. IT DRIFTS ON A GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS TRACK WITH SLOW MOTION. IT IS EXPECTED TO SPEED UP SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS IN A LESS AND LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT AND TO WEAK BEFORE BEGINNING ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. NOTE : ACTUAL MOVE 180/08KT (5KT MENTIONNED IN THE BEGINNING OF THIS ADVISORY IS AN AVERAGE FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS)