Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 23/8/20082009 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (GAEL) 2.A POSITION 2009/02/07 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6S / 51.8E (TWENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 500 SO: 500 NO: 350 50 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 150 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/08 00 UTC: 21.8S/52.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2009/02/08 12 UTC: 23.5S/52.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2009/02/09 00 UTC: 25.8S/53.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/02/09 12 UTC: 27.8S/55.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2009/02/10 00 UTC: 29.9S/56.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/02/10 12 UTC: 31.4S/57.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0 ET CI=5.5 GAEL THAS REACHED ITS PEAK OF INTENSITY AND BEGINS WEAKENING. ENHANCED INFRARED PATTERN SHOWS A COLDER EYE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY (AMSU 0622Z AND SSMIS 0157Z) REVEALS AN ERODED EYEWALL IN THE WESTERN PART. IT GENERATES A SWELL FROM 3M TO 5M AVERAGE HIGH ON THE EASTERN MALAGASY COASLINE AND THE ISLANDS OF LA REUNION AND MAURITIUS. IT IS EXPECTED TO SPEED UP SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS IN A LESS AND LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT AND TO WEAK BEFORE BEGINNING ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. NOTE : ACTUAL MOVE 180/08KT (5KT MENTIONNED IN THE BEGINNING OF THIS ADVISORY IS AN AVERAGE FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS)