Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/8/20082009 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (GAEL) 2.A POSITION 2009/02/07 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.2S / 52.1E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 500 SO: 500 NO: 350 50 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 150 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/08 06 UTC: 22.8S/52.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2009/02/08 18 UTC: 24.9S/53.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2009/02/09 06 UTC: 27.1S/54.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/02/09 18 UTC: 29.1S/56.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2009/02/10 06 UTC: 30.5S/57.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/02/10 18 UTC: 31.7S/57.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0 ET CI=5.5 CURRENT POSITION HAS BEEN MADE WITH THE RADAR OF LA REUNION. CURRENT MOTION AND SPEED:160/7KT SINCE 12 TU, 6 HOURS AVERAGE T-NUMBER IS AROUND 5.0. GAEL HAS TEMPORARILY STOPPED ITS WEAKENING TREND. LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY (SSMIS 1430Z AND SSMI 1449Z) STILL REVEALS AN ERODED EYEWALL IN THE WESTERN PART. HOWEVER DATA FROM THE RADAR OF LA REUNION SUGGEST A SLIGHTY BETTER DEFINED EYEWALL. GAEL GENERATES A SWELL FROM 3M TO 5M AVERAGE HIGH ON THE EASTERN MALAGASY COASLINE AND THE ISLANDS OF LA REUNION AND MAURITIUS. IT IS EXPECTED TO SPEED UP SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN A LESS AND LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT AND TO WEAK BEFORE BEGINNING ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST RANGE, A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD SLOW DOWN THE EXTRATROPICAL EXIT OF GAEL.