Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 25/8/20082009 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (GAEL) 2.A POSITION 2009/02/08 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.9S / 52.5E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 390 SE: 650 SO: 430 NO: 350 50 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 150 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/08 12 UTC: 24.0S/53.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2009/02/09 00 UTC: 26.2S/54.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2009/02/09 12 UTC: 28.4S/55.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2009/02/10 00 UTC: 29.8S/56.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2009/02/10 12 UTC: 30.6S/57.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/02/11 00 UTC: 31.2S/58.4E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0+ ET CI=5.5 CURRENT POSITION HAS BEEN MADE WITH THE RADAR OF LA REUNION. CURRENT MOTION AND SPEED:150/8KT SINCE 18 TU, 6 HOURS AVERAGE T-NUMBER IS AROUND 5.0+. EYE HAS GET WARMER TONIGHT AND OVERALL PATTERN HAS SLIGHTY IMPROVED FOR A FEW HOURS (BEST PRESENTATION AT 20:30Z AND 21:30Z) BEFORE A NEW DETERIORATION AT 22:30Z. LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY (AMSU B 1830Z) STILL REVEALS AN ERODED EYEWALL IN THE WESTERN PART. MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLANDS ARE CONCERNED BY SOME VIGOROUS OUTER BANDS THAT HAS DEVELOPPED IN THE EASTERN SEMI CIRCLE AT MORE THAN 200 NM FROM THE CENTER. ASSOCIATED DISTURBED WEATHER SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE STARTING FROM TODAY. CYCLONIC SWELL FROM 3M TO 5M ON AVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CONTINUE TO HIT EXPOSED COAST OF MADAGASCAR AND MAURITIUS/ LA REUNION. NO MAJOR CHANGES CAME FROM THE 12Z RUN. AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND BETWEEN 60E AND 65E, GAEL IS EXPECTED TO SPEED UP SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS IN A LESS AND LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD GETTING STRONGER SUNDAY EVENING) AND TO WEAK BEFORE BEGINNING ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST RANGE, A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD SLOW DOWN THE EXTRATROPICAL EXIT OF GAEL.