Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 26/8/20082009 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (GAEL) 2.A POSITION 2009/02/08 AT 0600 UTC : 22.9S / 53.0E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 400 SE: 400 SO: 450 NO: 300 50 KT NE: 180 SE: 100 SO: 150 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/08 18 UTC: 25.3S/53.8E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2009/02/09 06 UTC: 27.8S/55.1E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2009/02/09 18 UTC: 30.0S/57.1E, MAX WIND=060KT , BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2009/02/10 06 UTC: 31.3S/58.5E, MAX WIND=050KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2009/02/10 18 UTC: 32.1S/59.5E, MAX WIND=050KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/02/11 06 UTC: 32.9S/60.6E, MAX WIND=045KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0+ ET CI=5.5 CURRENT MOTION AND SPEED:150/11KT SINCE 00TU, 6 HOURS AVERAGE T-NUMBER IS AROUND 5.0+. EYE STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED DURING THESE LAST HOURS (BETTER ASPECT BETWEEN 0200Z AND 0600Z). LATEST AVAILABLE MICROWAVE IMAGERIES (SSMIS 0145Z AND 0418Z) SHOW A FIX DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER AND THE LOW LEVEL CENTRES, AND STILL REVEALS AN ERODED EYEWALL IN THE WESTERN PART. REUNION ISLAND IS LOCATED IN THE DANGEROUS SEMI-CIRCLE AND IS CONCERNED BY VIOLENT WINDS. QUIKSCAT DATA AT 0330Z MEASURED 50 KT AT 60 NM FROM THE WESTERN REUNION COAST. ASSOCIATED DISTURBED WEATHER SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. CYCLONIC SWELL FROM 3M TO 5M ON AVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CONTINUE TO HIT EXPOSED COASTS OF MADAGASCAR AND MAURITIUS/ LA REUNION. NO MAJOR CHANGES CAME FROM THE 00Z RUN. AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND BETWEEN 60E AND 65E, GAEL IS GOING TO KEEP ON SPEEDING UP SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IN A LESS AND LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD GETTING STRONGER SUNDAY EVENING) AND TO WEAK BEFORE BEGINNING ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST RANGE, A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD SLOW DOWN THE EXTRATROPICAL EXIT OF GAEL.