Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 27/8/20082009 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (GAEL) 2.A POSITION 2009/02/08 AT 1200 UTC : 24.3S / 53.4E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 14 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 400 SE: 400 SO: 450 NO: 300 50 KT NE: 180 SE: 100 SO: 150 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/09 00 UTC: 27.0S/54.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2009/02/09 12 UTC: 29.7S/56.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2009/02/10 00 UTC: 31.6S/58.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2009/02/10 12 UTC: 32.5S/59.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2009/02/11 00 UTC: 33.0S/60.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/02/11 12 UTC: 34.4S/63.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5+ ET CI=5.5- CURRENT MOTION AND SPEED:160/13KT SINCE 06TU, 6 HOURS AVERAGE T-NUMBER IS AROUND 4.5+. EYE HAS STARTED TO WARM TILL 0930Z AND SHOWS A RAAGED ASPECT SINCE 0700Z. LAST AVAILABLE MICROWAVE IMAGERIES (SSMIS 0145Z AND 0418Z) SHOW A DIFFERENCE OF LOCATION BETWEEN THE UPPER AND THE LOW LEVEL CENTRES, HINT OF AN UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT. AMSU 0559Z STILL REVEALS AN ERODED EYEWALL IN THE WESTERN PART. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN OVER LA REUNION ISLAND DURING THE COMING NIGHT. CYCLONIC SWELL OF 3M TO 5M ON AVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CONTINUE TO HIT EXPOSED COASTS OF MADAGASCAR AND MAURITIUS/ LA REUNION. NO MAJOR CHANGES CAME FROM THE 00Z RUN. AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND BETWEEN 60E AND 65E, GAEL IS GOING TO KEEP ON SPEEDING UP SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IN A LESS AND LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR STRONGER STARTING THIS COMING NIGHT AND THEN INSUFFICIENT OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL AS THE SSTS BECOME COOL) AND TO WEAK BEFORE BEGINNING ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST RANGE, A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD SLOW DOWN THE EXTRATROPICAL EXIT OF GAEL.