Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 29/8/20082009 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (GAEL) 2.A POSITION 2009/02/09 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.6S / 54.8E (TWENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 14 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 35 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 550 SE: 400 SO: 450 NO: 300 50 KT NE: 170 SE: 200 SO: 150 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/09 12 UTC: 28.9S/56.4E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2009/02/10 00 UTC: 30.9S/58.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2009/02/10 12 UTC: 31.9S/60.4E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2009/02/11 00 UTC: 32.5S/61.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2009/02/11 12 UTC: 33.2S/63.4E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/02/12 00 UTC: 34.7S/66.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.5 AND CI=5.5 GAEL HAS TEMPORARELY STOPPED WEAKENING AND HAS SO FACT SLIGHTLY RE-INTENSIFY WITHIN THE RECENT PAST HOURS PROBABLY DUE TO A LESS UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT (TILD BETWEEN 37GHZ AND 85GHZ IS NO MORE SO BIG ON TRMM 1548Z - AQUA 2140Z) SYSTEM IS HOWEVER EXPECTED TO UNDERGO LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AT UPPER LEVELS AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON COOLER SEA. CYCLONIC SWELL OF 3M TO 5M ON AVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CONTINUE TO HIT EXPOSED COASTS OF MADAGASCAR AND MAURITIUS/ LA REUNION. NO MAJOR CHANGES CAME FROM THE 12Z RUN. AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND BETWEEN 60E AND 65E, GAEL IS GOING TO KEEP ON SPEEDING UP SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IN A LESS AND LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR STRONGER STARTING THIS COMING NIGHT AND THEN INSUFFICIENT OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL AS THE SSTS BECOME COOL) AND TO WEAK BEFORE BEGINNING ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST RANGE, A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD SLOW DOWN THE EXTRATROPICAL EXIT OF GAEL.