Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 30/8/20082009 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (GAEL) 2.A POSITION 2009/02/09 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.2S / 56.4E (TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 16 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 35 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 700 SE: 700 SO: 700 NO: 500 50 KT NE: 160 SE: 150 SO: 070 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/09 18 UTC: 30.1S/58.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2009/02/10 06 UTC: 31.4S/59.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2009/02/10 18 UTC: 32.2S/61.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2009/02/11 06 UTC: 32.7S/63.4E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2009/02/11 18 UTC: 33.5S/65.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/02/12 06 UTC: 34.8S/68.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0 AND CI=5.0+. GAEL HAS ACCELERATED SOUTHEASTWARDS, AND UNDERGOES AGAIN NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.(TILD BETWEEN 37GHZ AND 85GHZ ON SSMIS 0133Z) SYSTEM IS HOWEVER EXPECTED TO UNDERGO LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AT UPPER LEVELS AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON COOLER SEA. AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM, GAEL IS GOING TO KEEP ON SPEEDING UP SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IN A LESS AND LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR STRONGER STARTING THIS COMING NIGHT AND THEN INSUFFICIENT OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL AS THE SSTS BECOME COOL) AND TO WEAK BEFORE BEGINNING ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST RANGE, A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD SLOW DOWN THE EXTRATROPICAL EXIT OF GAEL.