Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 31/8/20082009 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (GAEL) 2.A POSITION 2009/02/09 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.5S / 57.5E (TWENTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 19 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/4.5 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 965 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 800 SE: 700 SO: 700 NO: 450 50 KT NE: 160 SE: 140 SO: 070 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 950 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/10 00 UTC: 31.0S/59.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2009/02/10 12 UTC: 32.0S/60.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2009/02/11 00 UTC: 32.7S/62.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2009/02/11 12 UTC: 33.5S/64.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2009/02/12 00 UTC: 35.0S/66.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/02/12 12 UTC: 37.6S/71.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5 AND CI=4.5+ GAEL HAS RAPIDLY WEAKEN UNDER THE EFFECT OF NORTH-WESTERLY UPPER LEVELS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HIS ARRIVAL OVER COOLER SEAS (24.5°C). CONVECTION INTENSITY AND EXTENSION HAVE WEAKEN DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS (CF. RECENT ANIMATED INFRA-RED IMAGERY). CONVECTION IS NOW SOUTH-EASTWARD OF THE LLC (CF. MW IMAGERY NOAA17 AT 1010TU). GAEL HAS ALSO BEGINING HIS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BUT STRONG WINDS REMAINS CLOSE TO THE LLC (TROPICAL FEATURES). IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE SLOWLY SOUTH-EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HEURES, IN RELATION WITH THE SUBTROPICAL LOW LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM.