Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 32/8/20082009 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (GAEL) 2.A POSITION 2009/02/09 AT 1800 UTC : 30.9S / 59.4E (THIRTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 20 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/4.5 /W 1.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 970 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 400 SE: 550 SO: 550 NO: 400 50 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 220 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/10 06 UTC: 32.5S/61.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2009/02/10 18 UTC: 33.0S/63.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2009/02/11 06 UTC: 34.0S/64.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2009/02/11 18 UTC: 35.3S/66.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2009/02/12 06 UTC: 37.2S/68.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/02/12 18 UTC: 39.1S/72.2E FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5 AND CI=4.5 FIX EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE F16/1635Z CENTRE POSITION. WINDS EXTENSION CALIBRATED THANKS TO QUIKSCAT DATA AT 1346Z. GAEL IS WEAKENING UNDER THE EFFECT OF NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVELS VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND HIS ARRIVAL OVER COOLER SEAS (23°C). DEEP CONVECTION IS SOUTHEASTWARDS AWAY FROM THE LLCC (TRMM 1315Z, F16 1635Z) DUE TO THIS VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. GAEL HAS ALSO BEGUN HIS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BUT STRONG WINDS REMAIN CLOSE TO THE LLCC. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE SLOWLY SOUTH-EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HEURES, IN RELATION WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.