Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 33/8/20082009 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (GAEL) 2.A POSITION 2009/02/10 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 31.4S / 60.6E (THIRTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/4.0 /W 2.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 500 SO: 500 NO: 350 50 KT NE: 120 SE: 180 SO: 180 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/10 12 UTC: 32.0S/62.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2009/02/11 00 UTC: 32.7S/64.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2009/02/11 12 UTC: 33.6S/65.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2009/02/12 00 UTC: 35.5S/67.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2009/02/12 12 UTC: 37.8S/69.6E FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0 AND CI=4.0+ FIX EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE N18/2130Z CENTRE POSITION. GAEL IS WEAKENING UNDER THE EFFECT OF NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVELS VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND HIS ARRIVAL OVER COOLER SEAS (23°C). DEEP CONVECTION IS SOUTHEASTWARDS AWAY FROM THE LLCC (F16/1635Z, AMSU/2130Z) DUE TO THIS VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLIER SOUTHEASTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 36 HEURES, IN RELATION WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.