Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/9/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 2.A POSITION 2009/02/21 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.6S / 77.3E (TWELVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/21 18 UTC: 12.9S/77.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2009/02/22 06 UTC: 13.4S/77.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2009/02/22 18 UTC: 14.2S/77.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/02/23 06 UTC: 15.0S/76.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/02/23 18 UTC: 15.7S/76.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2009/02/24 06 UTC: 16.6S/75.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONVECTION STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER CICRLULATION HAS IMPROVED TO (QUIKSCAT 00H34), STRONGEST WINDS ARE ALWAYS LOCATED FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE MONSOON FLOW IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, AND DUE TO THE GRADIANT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHS IN THE SOUTHEASTHERN SECTOR. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE AT UPPER LEVEL UNDER THE RIDGE,AND IS EXPECTED TO IMPORVED WITH THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A POLARWARDS OUTFLOW. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL INFLOW ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK TO MODERATE, WITH A MONSOON FLOW BECOMING LESS DIRECT, AND A WEAKENING TRADRES FLOW UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEW HIGH FORECASTED INTHE SECOND PART OF THE PERIOD. SO THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY QUITE PROGRESSIVELY, ON A GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS TRACK.