Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/9/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 2.A POSITION 2009/02/21 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1S / 77.4E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1001 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/22 00 UTC: 13.7S/77.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2009/02/22 12 UTC: 14.3S/77.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/02/23 00 UTC: 15.1S/77.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/02/23 12 UTC: 15.7S/76.4E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/02/24 00 UTC: 16.2S/75.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2009/02/24 12 UTC: 16.8S/74.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONVECTION IS GOING ON CONSOLIDATING AROUND A LARGE AND WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER STRONGEST WINDS ARE ALWAYS LOCATED FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE MONSOON FLOW IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, AND DUE TO THE GRADIANT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHS IN THE SOUTHEASTHERN SECTOR. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE AT UPPER LEVEL UNDER THE RIDGE,AND IS EXPECTED TO IMPORVED WITH THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A POLARWARDS OUTFLOW. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL INFLOW ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK TO MODERATE, WITH A MONSOON FLOW BECOMING LESS DIRECT, AND A WEAKENING TRADRES FLOW UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEW HIGH FORECASTED INTHE SECOND PART OF THE PERIOD. SO THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY QUITE PROGRESSIVELY, ON A GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS TRACK, THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS.