Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/9/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 2.A POSITION 2009/02/21 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6S / 77.8E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/22 06 UTC: 15.5S/78.1E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/02/22 18 UTC: 16.3S/78.1E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/02/23 06 UTC: 17.0S/77.9E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/02/23 18 UTC: 17.6S/77.6E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/02/24 06 UTC: 18.0S/77.2E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2009/02/24 18 UTC: 18.5S/76.5E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONVECTION IS ORGANIZING AND SHOWS A CURVED BAND PATTERN ON THE LAST IMAGERY. FIX RELOCATED SOUTHWARDS ACCORDING TO MICROWAVE DATA WINDSAT 1232Z, F16 1407Z, AMSU 1607Z. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE AT UPPER LEVELS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER THE RIDGE; WINDSHEAR IS WEAK, AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD, MOSTLY POLEWARDS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT LOW LEVELS, INFLOWS ARE ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER THESE LOW LEVEL INFLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WEAKER, WITH A MONSOON FLOW BECOMING UNDIRECT, AND A DECREASING TRADES WINDS FLOW (UNTIL THE BUILDING OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, FORECASTED IN THE SECOND PART OF THE PERIOD). AT UPPER LEVELS, WINDSHEAR SOULD INCREASE IN THE NEXT 36H TO 48H. THE SYSTEM TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF A RIDGE LOCATED IN THE NORTHEAST. THEN (AT 36H), THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS.