Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/9/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (HINA) 2.A POSITION 2009/02/22 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0S / 78.0E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 070 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/22 12 UTC: 16.1S/78.5E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/02/23 00 UTC: 17.3S/78.5E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/02/23 12 UTC: 18.1S/78.1E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/02/24 00 UTC: 18.8S/77.5E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/02/24 12 UTC: 19.5S/76.5E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2009/02/25 00 UTC: 20.0S/75.0E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5+ SYSTEM KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING, AND HAS BEEN NAMED AT 0000Z. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE AT UPPER LEVELS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER THE RIDGE; WINDSHEAR IS WEAK, AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD, MOSTLY POLEWARDS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWEST. AT LOW LEVELS, INFLOWS ARE ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER THESE LOW LEVEL INFLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WEAKER, WITH A MONSOON FLOW BECOMING UNDIRECT, AND A DECREASING TRADES WINDS FLOW (UNTIL THE BUILDING OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, EXPECTED IN THE SECOND PART OF THE PERIOD). AT UPPER LEVELS, WINDSHEAR SOULD INCREASE IN THE NEXT 36 H, AND HINDER THE INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF A RIDGE LOCATED IN THE NORTHEAST. THEN (AT 36H), THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THEREFORE TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS.