Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/9/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (HINA) 2.A POSITION 2009/02/22 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0S / 78.4E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 130 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/22 18 UTC: 17.4S/78.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/02/23 06 UTC: 18.5S/78.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/02/23 18 UTC: 19.3S/77.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/02/24 06 UTC: 20.1S/76.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/02/24 18 UTC: 20.7S/74.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2009/02/25 06 UTC: 21.5S/72.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5- SYSTEM KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING. LATEST MICROWAVE (TRMM 2338Z, SSMIS 0026Z, NOAA 17 0351Z) IMAGERY SHOW AN EYE FEATURE AND THE VERY LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ILL DEFINED EYE FEATURE TOO. SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND WE ARE IN THE MIMIT OF THE DVORAK CONTRAINTS (T=1.5+ 24 HOURS AGO) ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE AT UPPER LEVELS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER THE RIDGE; WINDSHEAR IS WEAK, AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD, MOSTLY POLEWARDS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWEST. AT LOW LEVELS, INFLOWS ARE ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER WINDSHEAR SOULD INCREASE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 H, AND HINDER THE INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF A RIDGE LOCATED IN THE NORTHEAST. THEN (AT 36H), THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THEREFORE TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS.