Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/9/20082009 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (HINA) 2.A POSITION 2009/02/22 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8S / 78.6E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 130 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/23 00 UTC: 18.1S/78.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/02/23 12 UTC: 18.9S/77.1E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/02/24 00 UTC: 19.5S/76.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/02/24 12 UTC: 20.3S/74.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/02/25 00 UTC: 21.4S/73.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2009/02/25 12 UTC: 23.1S/70.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.0- SYSTEM KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING. DVORAK ANALYSIS WITH A CURVED BAND PATTERN HAS GIVEN A T NUMBER AT 4.0 THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE LAST SATELLITE IMAGERY, A CONVECTIVE BURST HAS OCCURED NEAR THE CENTER. HINA IS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT ALLOWS LOW WINDSHEAR. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS RATHER GOOD: EXCELLENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF HINA DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT MORE LIMITED OVER THE NORTHERN SECTOR. AT LOW LEVELS, INFLOWS ARE ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER NORTHEASTERLY WINDSHEAR SHOULD INCREASE A LITTLE BIT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND MAINTAIN FOR THE WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENTLY, NONE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE BRING HINA TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE WITH THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION TREND. SO, IT IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE PRESENT INTENSITY FORECAST, ALTHOUGH THIS COULD NOT BE COMPLETLY EXCLUDED. UNDER THE PERSISTENCY INFLUENCE OF SHEAR AND THE ARRIVAL OVER AREA OF LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTAIN AT THE END OF THE FORCAST PERIOD, SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER TOMORROW. STEERING FLOW SEEMS TO BE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE (500/600 HPA) LOCATED TO THE EAST OF HINA. CONSEQUENTLY, TRACK IS TOWARD THE SOUTH (MOTION/SPEED: 160°/09KT). THEN (STARTING PROGRESSIVELY TOMORROW), THIS RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AND GIVE A MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS COMPONENT TO THE TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE NWP MODELS.