Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/9/20082009 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (HINA) 2.A POSITION 2009/02/22 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6S / 78.7E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 130 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/23 06 UTC: 18.3S/78.4E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/02/23 18 UTC: 18.7S/77.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/02/24 06 UTC: 19.3S/76.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/02/24 18 UTC: 20.0S/75.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/02/25 06 UTC: 20.8S/73.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2009/02/25 18 UTC: 21.7S/71.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.0- HINA IS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT ALLOWS LOW WINDSHEAR. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS RATHER GOOD: EXCELLENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF HINA DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT MORE LIMITED OVER THE NORTHERN SECTOR. AT LOW LEVELS, INFLOWS ARE ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER NORTHEASTERLY WINDSHEAR SHOULD INCREASE A LITTLE BIT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND MAINTAIN FOR THE WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD. UNDER THE PERSISTENCY INFLUENCE OF SHEAR AND THE ARRIVAL OVER AREA OF LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTAIN AT THE END OF THE FORCAST PERIOD, SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER TOMORROW. STEERING FLOW SEEMS TO BE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF HINA. CONSEQUENTLY, TRACK IS TOWARD THE SOUTH, THEN THIS RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AND GIVE A MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS COMPONENT TO THE TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE NWP MODELS.