Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/9/20082009 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (HINA) 2.A POSITION 2009/02/23 AT 0600 UTC : 18.7S / 77.7E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 982 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 130 SE: 400 SO: 320 NO: 130 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/23 18 UTC: 19.2S/76.7E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/02/24 06 UTC: 19.7S/75.6E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/02/24 18 UTC: 20.4S/74.3E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/02/25 06 UTC: 21.1S/73.0E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/02/25 18 UTC: 22.1S/71.3E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2009/02/26 06 UTC: 23.6S/68.9E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0+, CI=3.5+ NORTHEASTERLY WINDSHEAR IS INCREASING DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SOUTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW IS EFFICIENT. AT LOW LEVELS, INFLOWS ARE ESTABLISHED. UNDER THE PERSISTENCY INFLUENCE OF SHEAR AND THE ARRIVAL OVER AREA OF LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTAIN AT THE END OF THE FORCAST PERIOD, SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER TOMORROW MORNING. STEERING FLOW SEEMS TO BE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF HINA. CONSEQUENTLY, TRACK IS TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST, THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE NWP MODELS.