Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/9/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (HINA) 2.A POSITION 2009/02/23 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5S / 77.9E (NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 380 SO: 380 NO: 130 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/24 00 UTC: 20.5S/76.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/02/24 12 UTC: 20.8S/75.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/02/25 00 UTC: 21.1S/73.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2009/02/25 12 UTC: 21.8S/71.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2009/02/26 00 UTC: 23.4S/70.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2009/02/26 12 UTC: 26.0S/68.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0, CI=3.5- THE SYSTEM IS MODERATELY NORTHLY SHEARED. THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. EQUATORWARD LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL DECREASE PROGRESSIVELY, BUT THE TRADE FLOW IS STILL GOOD. UPPER LEVELS WIND SHEAR WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND THE POLARWARD DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD. THE SYSTEM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS LINKED TO THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN PROGRESSIVELY.