Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/9/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (HINA) 2.A POSITION 2009/02/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5S / 77.8E (NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 450 SO: 600 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 850 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/24 06 UTC: 20.5S/76.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/02/24 18 UTC: 21.4S/73.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2009/02/25 06 UTC: 22.4S/71.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2009/02/25 18 UTC: 24.0S/70.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2009/02/26 06 UTC: 26.3S/68.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2009/02/26 18 UTC: 27.7S/68.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5, CI=3.0 THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON WEAKENING AND WINDS HAS BEEN CALIBRATED ACCORDING TO THE LAST QUICKSCAT PASS. STONG UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH POSITION BASED ON LAST MW IMAGERY (SSMIS OF 12:48Z) AND NEAR IR IMAGERY. EQUATORWARD LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL DECREASE PROGRESSIVELY, BUT THE TRADE FLOW IS STILL GOOD. UPPER LEVELS WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN PERSISTENT ALTHOUGH POLEWARDS DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD. WITHIN A MORE LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW, THE SYSTEM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS LINKED TO THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EAST AND THE SOUTH.