Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/9/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 (EX-HINA) 2.A POSITION 2009/02/24 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5S / 76.6E (NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 600 SO: 450 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/24 12 UTC: 20.2S/74.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2009/02/25 00 UTC: 22.0S/71.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2009/02/25 12 UTC: 24.1S/69.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2009/02/26 00 UTC: 26.1S/68.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2009/02/26 12 UTC: 27.6S/67.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2009/02/27 00 UTC: 29.1S/66.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0-, CI=2.5 THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON QUITE STRONG WEAKENING TREND WITH A RESIDUAL CONVECTION NOW LOCATED AT MORE THAN 120 NM FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER THAT IS FIXED MORE ACCURATELY ACCORDING TO NEAR IR IMAGERY AND LAST MW (METOP, NOAA 18 AND AQUA) ACCORDING TO THIS DATA, SYSTEM HAS MADE A SHARP TURN TONIGHT AND HAS ACCELERATED WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS (CURRENT MOTION AND SPEED: 260°/09KT) WITHIN A MORE LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHALLOW SYSTEM. PRESENT TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS BETWEEN EUROPEAN NWP MODELS. THE US CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BIT SOUTHWARDS. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD PREVENT ANY REINTENSIFICATION. DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, SYSTEM ALSO ARRIVES OVER COOLER SST.