Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/9/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 (EX-HINA) 2.A POSITION 2009/02/24 AT 0600 UTC : 20.0S / 75.7E (TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /W 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 600 SO: 450 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/24 18 UTC: 21.0S/73.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2009/02/25 06 UTC: 22.8S/71.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2009/02/25 18 UTC: 24.8S/69.6E, MAX WIND=015KT, FILLING UP. 48H: 2009/02/26 06 UTC: 26.6S/68.3E, MAX WIND=015KT, FILLING UP. 60H: 2009/02/26 18 UTC: 28.5S/67.4E DISSIPATING. 72H: 2009/02/27 06 UTC: 30.7S/66.9E DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5, CI=2.0 THE SYSTEM LLCC IS FULLY EXPOSED AT MORE THAN 130 NM FROM THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION. IT IS ALSO STILL WEAKENING. IT TRACKS NOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DOWNGRADE (NO MORE FEEDING EQUATORWARD, MODERATE NORTH-WESTERLY WIND SHEAR ALOFT, ARRIVAL ON COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES).