Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/9/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 (EX-HINA) 2.A POSITION 2009/02/24 AT 1200 UTC : 20.4S / 74.6E (TWENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /W 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 600 SO: 450 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/25 00 UTC: 21.7S/72.2E, MAX WIND=020KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2009/02/25 12 UTC: 23.4S/70.2E, MAX WIND=015KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2009/02/26 00 UTC: 25.7S/68.8E, MAX WIND=015KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2009/02/26 12 UTC: 27.8S/68.2E, MAX WIND=015KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2009/02/27 00 UTC: 30.0S/68.4E, MAX WIND=015KT , BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/02/27 12 UTC: 31.7S/69.2E, MAX WIND=015KT , BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5, CI=2.0 DURING THE LAST HOURS, A CONVECTIVE BURST HAS REBUILT CLOSE TO THE LLCC, SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE LLCC IS STILL FULLY EXPOSED. THE SYSTEM MOTION HAS INCREASE A BIT, AND ITS TRACK IS STILL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, ITS STEERING FLOW IS NOW THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVELS FLOW DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DOWNGRADE (NO MORE FEEDING EQUATORWARD, MODERATE NORTH-WESTERLY WIND SHEAR ALOFT, ARRIVAL OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES), ALSO THE SYSTEM DOESN'T HAVE ANY POTENTIAL FOR REINTENSIFICATION. ITS TRACK WILL CURVE SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD.