Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/9/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 (EX-HINA) 2.A POSITION 2009/02/24 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7S / 72.9E (TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 600 SO: 600 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/25 06 UTC: 22.1S/70.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2009/02/25 18 UTC: 24.4S/69.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2009/02/26 06 UTC: 26.7S/68.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2009/02/26 18 UTC: 28.8S/67.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2009/02/27 06 UTC: 30.7S/67.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/02/27 18 UTC: 32.1S/68.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.0 REBUILDING DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE RECENT PAST HOURS HAS STOPPED THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM BUT THUNDERY ACTIVITY IS THROWED AGAIN FAR IN THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. LLCC IS AGAIN FULLY EXPOSED ON INFRARED METEOSAT7 IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM MOTION HAS INCREASE A BIT, AND ITS TRACK IS STILL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, ITS STEERING FLOW IS NOW THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVELS FLOW DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DOWNGRADE (NO MORE FEEDING EQUATORWARD, MODERATE NORTH-WESTERLY WIND SHEAR ALOFT, ARRIVAL OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES), ALSO THE SYSTEM DOESN'T HAVE ANY POTENTIAL FOR REINTENSIFICATION. ITS TRACK WILL CURVE SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD.