Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/9/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 (EX-HINA) 2.A POSITION 2009/02/25 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.4S / 71.4E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 600 SO: 600 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/25 12 UTC: 23.5S/69.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2009/02/26 00 UTC: 25.8S/67.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2009/02/26 12 UTC: 27.6S/65.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2009/02/27 00 UTC: 29.1S/64.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2009/02/27 12 UTC: 31.2S/64.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/02/28 00 UTC: 35.0S/65.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.0 DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS THROWED FAR IN THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. LLCC IS AGAIN FULLY EXPOSED ON INFRARED METEOSAT7 AND NEAR-INFRARED METOP AND N18 IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM MOTION HAS INCREASE A BIT, AND ITS TRACK IS STILL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, ITS STEERING FLOW IS NOW THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVELS FLOW DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DOWNGRADE (NO MORE FEEDING EQUATORWARD, MODERATE NORTH-WESTERLY WIND SHEAR ALOFT, ARRIVAL OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES), ALSO THE SYSTEM DOESN'T HAVE ANY POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICATIVE REINTENSIFICATION. ITS TRACK SHOULD CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS.