Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/9/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 (EX-HINA) 2.A POSITION 2009/02/25 AT 0600 UTC : 22.0S / 69.8E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.0/1.5 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 400 SO: 400 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/25 18 UTC: 23.6S/67.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2009/02/26 06 UTC: 25.4S/65.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2009/02/26 18 UTC: 27.2S/64.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2009/02/27 06 UTC: 29.0S/63.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2009/02/27 18 UTC: 31.3S/63.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS THROWED FAR IN THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. LLCC IS AGAIN FULLY EXPOSED ON INFRARED METEOSAT7. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DOWNGRADE (NO MORE FEEDING EQUATORWARD, MODERATE NORTH-WESTERLY WIND SHEAR ALOFT, ARRIVAL OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES), ALSO THE SYSTEM DOESN'T HAVE ANY POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICATIVE REINTENSIFICATION. ITS TRACK SHOULD CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS. THIS WARNING IS THE LAST ONE ABOUT THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REINTENSIFICATION.