Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/10/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 2.A POSITION 2009/03/08 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.4S / 80.8E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/03/08 18 UTC: 15.0S/81.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2009/03/09 06 UTC: 16.3S/83.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2009/03/09 18 UTC: 17.7S/85.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/03/10 06 UTC: 18.8S/85.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/03/10 18 UTC: 19.2S/85.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2009/03/11 06 UTC: 19.1S/83.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRE OVER LAST NIGHT, BUT THE SYSTEM BARELY INTENSIFIES. IT STILL UNDERGOES AN UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT AS SHOWN BY THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN THE NORTH OF THE CONVECTION. THIS LLCC REMAINS RATHER POORLY DEFINED ON THE ANIMATED IMAGERY. WINDS ARE CALIBRATED ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT DATA AT 0056Z. AT 0100Z, BUOY NR 16580 MEASURED 100.07 HPA IN THE EAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTRE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY VERY GRADUALLY WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE MAINLY WITH THE DECREASE OF THE WINDSHEAR. THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. BEYOND 36H, AVAILABLE MODELS SHOW A CURVE AND THEN A WESTWARDS TRACK, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE NWP.