Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/10/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 2.A POSITION 2009/03/08 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9S / 82.1E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 12 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/03/09 00 UTC: 16.1S/83.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2009/03/09 12 UTC: 17.6S/85.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2009/03/10 00 UTC: 18.6S/86.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2009/03/10 12 UTC: 18.8S/85.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/03/11 00 UTC: 18.6S/84.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2009/03/11 12 UTC: 18.5S/83.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM BARELY INTENSIFIES. IT STILL UNDERGOES AN UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT AS SHOWN BY THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN THE NORTH OF THE CONVECTION. THE POLEWARD DIVERGENCE IS WELL ESTABLISHED. LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS RATHER GOOD EQUATORWARDS, BUT IS WEAKENED POLEWARDS BY A TRANSIENT LOW LEVEL TROUGH. THE LLCC REMAINS RATHER POORLY DEFINED ON THE ANIMATED IMAGERY. AT 0900Z, BUOY NR 16580 MEASURED 998.7 HPA IN THE VICINITY OF THE ESTIMATED CENTRE (1000 HPA WITH BAROMETRIC TIDE). THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY VERY GRADUALLY WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE MAINLY WITH THE DECREASE OF THE WINDSHEAR. THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. BEYOND 36H, AVAILABLE MODELS SHOW A CURVE AND THEN A WESTWARDS TRACK, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE NWP. AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARINIGS.