Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/10/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 2.A POSITION 2009/03/09 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5S / 84.2E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/03/09 12 UTC: 16.6S/85.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2009/03/10 00 UTC: 17.9S/86.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2009/03/10 12 UTC: 18.5S/86.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2009/03/11 00 UTC: 18.2S/85.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2009/03/11 12 UTC: 17.8S/84.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2009/03/12 00 UTC: 17.1S/82.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.0 THE SYSTEM BARELY INTENSIFIES. IT STILL UNDERGOES AN UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT AS SHOWN BY THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN THE NORTH OF THE CONVECTION (SEE F16 08/1419Z AND AQUA 08/2013Z). THE POLEWARD DIVERGENCE IS WELL ESTABLISHED. LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS RATHER GOOD EQUATORWARDS, BUT IS WEAKENED POLEWARDS BY A TRANSIENT LOW LEVEL TROUGH. AT 1810Z, BUOY NR 53525 MEASURED 1000.1 HPA IN THE VICINITY OF THE ESTIMATED CENTRE. ON THE EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE , SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE MAINLY WITH THE DECREASE OF THE WINDSHEAR. THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. BEYOND 24H, AVAILABLE MODELS SHOW A CURVE AND THEN A WESTWARDS OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TRACK, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE REBUILDING LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARINIGS.