Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/10/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 2.A POSITION 2009/03/09 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6S / 85.7E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/03/10 00 UTC: 19.6S/85.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2009/03/10 12 UTC: 20.2S/85.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2009/03/11 00 UTC: 20.1S/84.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2009/03/11 12 UTC: 19.5S/83.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2009/03/12 00 UTC: 19.1S/81.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2009/03/12 12 UTC: 18.8S/80.1E, MAX WIND=015KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5 THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS. ACTUALLY THE UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT AS LIGHTLY WEAKEN. THE POLEWARD DIVERGENCE IS WELL ESTABLISHED. LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS RATHER GOOD EQUATORWARDS, BUT IS WEAKENED POLEWARDS BY A TRANSIENT LOW LEVEL TROUGH. THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES SHOULD REBUILT SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CURVE AND TRACK WESTWARD, THEN NORTH-WESTWARD BEYOND THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE TRADE INFLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DUE TO THE REBUILDING OF THE HIGH PRESSURES SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, BUT THE MONSOON INFLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. THE UPPER LEVELS WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STABILIZE AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE CONDITIONS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE BEYOND, WITH INCREASING OF THE NORTH-WESTERLY WIND SHEAR ALOFT.