Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/10/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 2.A POSITION 2009/03/09 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.7S / 87.2E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/03/10 06 UTC: 19.2S/87.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2009/03/10 18 UTC: 19.5S/86.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2009/03/11 06 UTC: 19.3S/85.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2009/03/11 18 UTC: 18.7S/83.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2009/03/12 06 UTC: 18.5S/81.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2009/03/12 18 UTC: 18.4S/78.4E, MAX WIND=015KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5 THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS, AS THE UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT HAS DECREASED. THE POLEWARD DIVERGENCE IS WELL ESTABLISHED. LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS RATHER GOOD EQUATORWARDS, BUT IS WEAKENED POLEWARDS BY A TRANSIENT LOW LEVEL TROUGH. THE STEERING INFLUENCE IS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE NORTH-EAST. WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES SHOULD REBUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CURVE AND TRACK WESTWARD. THE TRADE INFLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DUE TO THE BUILDING OF THE HIGH PRESSURES SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, BUT THE MONSOON INFLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. THE UPPER LEVELS WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE CONDITIONS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE BEYOND, WITH INCREASING OF THE NORTH-WESTERLY WIND SHEAR ALOFT. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE NWP.