Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/10/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 2.A POSITION 2009/03/10 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5S / 88.2E (NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 28 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/03/10 12 UTC: 20.0S/87.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2009/03/11 00 UTC: 20.1S/85.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2009/03/11 12 UTC: 19.7S/84.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 48H: 2009/03/12 00 UTC: 19.1S/82.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 60H: 2009/03/12 12 UTC: 18.3S/80.0E, MAX WIND=015KT, FILLING UP. 72H: 2009/03/13 00 UTC: 17.3S/77.8E, MAX WIND=015KT, FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5- THE CENTRE IS CLEARLY DEFINED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY TRMM 1524Z AND AQUA 1919Z WHICH SHOW A HIGHLY NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SHEARED SYSTEM. ASCAT PASS AT 1533Z (25 KM RESOLUTION) MEASURES WINDS AT 25 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS RATHER GOOD EQUATORWARDS, BUT IS CURRENTLY STILL WEAKENED POLEWARDS BY A TRANSIENT LOW LEVEL TROUGH. THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE TRACKED TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN SECTOR OVER THE LAST HOURS. IT SHOULD TRACK TOWARDS THE WESTERN SECTOR FOR THE NEXT HOURS, UNDER THE STEEERING INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE UPPER LEVELS WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT RANGES, AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD REGULARLY WEAKEN. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE NWP.