Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/10/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 2.A POSITION 2009/03/10 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4S / 88.2E (NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : NORTH-NORTH-EAST 10 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: SO: 250 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/03/10 18 UTC: 19.0S/87.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2009/03/11 06 UTC: 18.7S/86.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2009/03/11 18 UTC: 18.4S/85.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 48H: 2009/03/12 06 UTC: 18.1S/83.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 60H: 2009/03/12 18 UTC: 17.8S/81.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 72H: 2009/03/13 06 UTC: 17.8S/79.3E DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5, CI=2.0 FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS TEMPORARELY SHOWN TWO LLCC. AT 04:00 TU, ONE CAN BE LOCATED NEAR 18.9S/88.6E AND ANOTHER ONE LOCATED MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS NEAR 19.7S/88.2E. AT 05:30 TU, THE NORTHEAST ONE HAS DISSIPATED. UNDER THE EFFECT OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, THE REBUILT OF HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHWARDS AND THE RESIDUAL INFLUENCE OF THE SECONDARY VORTEX, THE FULLY EXPOSED MAIN LLCC HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTH-EAST (10°/13KT) DURING THE LAST 3 HOURS. IT SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TRACK PROGRESSIVELY TOWARDS THE WESTNORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT HOURS, UNDER THE STEEERING INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE UPPER LEVELS WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT RANGES. MOREOVER, EQUATORIAL LOW LEVEL INFLOW SHOULD DISSAPEAR TOMORROW. SO A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE NWP.