Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/10/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 2.A POSITION 2009/03/10 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7S / 88.6E (NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.0/2.0 /W 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: SO: 250 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/03/11 00 UTC: 20.0S/87.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 24H: 2009/03/11 12 UTC: 19.5S/86.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 36H: 2009/03/12 00 UTC: 19.2S/84.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 48H: 2009/03/12 12 UTC: 19.0S/82.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 60H: 2009/03/13 00 UTC: 18.7S/79.4E DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.0, CI=2.0 SYSTEM, VERY ILL-DEFINED, HAS SHOWN THIS MORNING 2 LLCC THAT WAS IN INTERACTION (ROTATION BETWEEN THEM) UNTIL 05H30 TU. THE MAIN ONE CONTINUE TO UNDERGO THE RESIDUAL INFLUENCE OF THE SECOND VORTEX AND SEEMS TO RESUME A CLOCKWISE CIRCULAR TRACK. VERY LAST SATELLITE FIX SHOW THAT PRESENT MOVEMENT IS NOW TOWARDS THE SOUTHSOUTHWEST (205°/08KT). BY THE TIME WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF THE SECOND VORTEX WILL END (WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS), MAIN LLCC SHOULD TAKE A WESTNORTHWESTWARDS TRACK UNDER THE STEEERING INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE. IT WILL PROGRESSIVELY FILLED-UP AS THE UPPER LEVELS WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STAY MODERATE TO STRONG FOR THE NEXT RANGES. MOREOVER, EQUATORIAL LOW LEVEL INFLOW SHOULD DISSAPEAR TOMORROW.. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE NWP. LAST ADVISORY UNLESS REINTENSIFICATION. THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL BE MONITORED WITH THE AFWIO20 BULLETIN.