Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/11/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11 2.A POSITION 2009/03/24 AT 0600 UTC : 20.8S / 41.7E (TWENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 100 SO: 350 NO: 300 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 450 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/03/24 18 UTC: 21.6S/41.8E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2009/03/25 06 UTC: 22.1S/41.5E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/03/25 18 UTC: 22.3S/41.1E, MAX WIND=045KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/03/26 06 UTC: 22.5S/40.8E, MAX WIND=055KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/03/26 18 UTC: 22.7S/40.6E, MAX WIND=065KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/03/27 06 UTC: 22.9S/40.0E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS ALWAYS SHOWING A MOONSON DEPRESSION STRUCTURE OF WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS FAR FROM THE CENTER. CONVECTION IS ORGANIZED INTO TWO LARGE CLUSTERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITINS ARE FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION, THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WITH A GOOD POLAR INLFLOW IN THE FIRST PART OF PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK PROGRESSIVELY MORE SOUTHWARDS THEN SLOWING DOWN EAST SOUTH-EASTWARDS.