Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/11/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 2.A POSITION 2009/03/24 AT 1200 UTC : 21.6S / 41.2E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 100 SO: 250 NO: 200 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 350 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/03/25 00 UTC: 22.3S/41.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/03/25 12 UTC: 22.6S/41.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/03/26 00 UTC: 22.9S/40.7E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/03/26 12 UTC: 22.9S/40.4E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2009/03/27 00 UTC: 23.0S/40.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/03/27 12 UTC: 23.1S/39.8E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5-. THE SYSTEM IS ALWAYS SHOWING A MOONSON DEPRESSION STRUCTURE OF WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS FAR FROM THE CENTER. CONVECTION IS NOW BETTER ORGANIZED, AND HAS BUILT OVER THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITINS ARE FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION, THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WITH A GOOD POLAR INLFLOW IN THE FIRST PART OF PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK PROGRESSIVELY MORE SLOWLY SOUTHWARDS THEN MORE EAST SOUTH-EASTWARDS UP TU TAU24 WITH THE REBUILT OF HIGHS AT MIDDLE LEVEL, REMAINING OVER FAVORABLE SST.