Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/11/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 2.A POSITION 2009/03/24 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.4S / 41.9E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 60 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 100 SO: 350 NO: 200 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/03/25 06 UTC: 22.9S/42.6E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/03/25 18 UTC: 23.5S/42.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/03/26 06 UTC: 23.6S/42.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/03/26 18 UTC: 23.4S/41.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2009/03/27 06 UTC: 23.2S/41.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/03/27 18 UTC: 23.1S/40.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5+ MODERATE TROPICAL STORM IZILDA. CONVECTION PRESENTS A CURVED BAND ORGANIZATION, THE SYSTEM IS INTENSIFYING. IT IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FOVBOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION, THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER AN UPPER LEVELS RIDGE, WITH A GOOD POLEWARD INFLOW IN THE FIRST PART OF PERIOD, AND GOOD OUTFLOWS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND THEN ITS TRACK SHOULD CURVE WESTWARD DUE TO THE REBUILT OF THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL SOUTH OF THE METEOR.